Outcome Forecast Blocks
Projected views, engagement, attributed commerce, and net margin on ad spend attached to a listing and reconciled against delivery.
An outcome block shows a buyer what a package is forecast to deliver before they commit. Genuin builds the forecast from your history, cohort size, and seasonality, then reconciles it against what the package delivered. Buyers judge your packages on outcomes rather than reach alone.
This capability arrives as a proposal when your network needs it, filled in from your brand context, and goes live when you confirm it. It's part of Marketplace, and Attribution: closed-loop commerce and conversion forecasts explains how forecasts are built from attributed outcomes.
When to use it
Use it on every listing. It's required for AdCP: a package needs an outcome block before AI buyer agents can discover it.
- Marketplace listings: packages with outcome blocks rank higher for buyers.
- AdCP products: buyer agents receive the block with each product, as covered in AdCP Discovery and Network Sales Agent.
- Renewals: delivery is reported against the forecast, so renewals rest on outcomes.
- Demand aggregators: net margin on ad spend is reported per client brand against the package forecast.
How it works
- Genuin forecasts views, engagement, and attributed conversions for any package or placement. The forecast draws on history, cohort size, and seasonality.
- Attribution supplies that history. It links video exposures to outcomes, such as clicks, add-to-carts, purchases, sign-ups, and offline sales.
- Retail attributed revenue (RAR) is the sales attributed to the package within the window. AdCP products carry projected RAR in their outcome block.
- Net margin on ad spend needs margin inputs, such as product margin and cost of goods. They come from your catalog or a margin file, and the block shows this measure where you have the data.
- At delivery, the forecast is reconciled against what the package delivered. Canvas's Packager and Pricer agents adjust listings from those results.
Set it up
Octo proposes the block with these steps already done. You review the result and confirm it.
- Connect conversions so forecasts have history. Add a source under Audiences > Conversions, such as your checkout, an offline purchase file, or a partner's postback. Learn how in Attribution: closed-loop commerce and conversion forecasts.
- Add the block when you list the package. Learn how in Marketplace Listing and Discovery.
- Reconcile the forecast against delivery. Learn how revenue and attribution are joined in Margin reporting: revenue per impression and net margin on ad spend.
Settings
| Setting | What it controls |
|---|---|
| Forecast inputs | The history the forecast draws on, such as connected conversions and margin data |
| Confidence shown to buyers | The forecast confidence buyers see on the listing |
Forecast inputs come from Audiences > Conversions. There, you map events to outcomes and values, such as order value or margin, and choose attribution windows per outcome.
What it reports
Reports > Attribution shows the outcomes behind each forecast, by placement, partner, cohort, and content. It adds incrementality where a holdout exists.
- Forecast accuracy: how close forecasts came to delivery, tracked over time.
- Delivery against forecast: delivered views, engagement, attributed commerce, and net margin for each package.
Margin reporting explains how net margin on ad spend is counted: the gross margin on attributed sales minus the partner's spend, divided by spend.
Build on it
Outcome blocks are built and attached in Brand Control Center, so they need no code. Serve your first ad covers giving ads a place to render, on the web and in iOS, Android, and React Native apps.
The forecast calls in the Business Account API are proposed, not live. Live API today and the Business Account API roadmap maps what you can call now to what's planned.
